What redistribution looks like in each state


Thirteen states have now finalized their redesigned Congress maps for the 2020s – most recently Montana, Idaho and Utah. And several other states are already deeply engaged in the process. To note in particular, California and Florida, home to 80 congressional districts between them, both released their first draft maps last week.

At this point, Democrats have won five seats nationwide through the redistribution process, Republicans have won five, and the number of competitive seats has shrunk by five. But while it looks like Democrats have won seats in the redistribution so far, that advantage is largely thanks to Texas Republicans offer Democratic incumbents safer neighborhoods in exchange for prop up their own seats. Republicans too control the redistribution of many more neighborhoods than the Democrats, so the GOP may soon get ahead of the Democrats. We have already seen, for example, Republicans in North Carolina, Ohio and Utah have adopted or proposed cards in recent days that are heavily biased in favor of the GOP, according to various equity measures.

That said, some of these cards are so extreme that they can be overturned by the courts. For example, there are already two lawsuits alleging that the new map of North Carolina is either a partisan or racial gerrymander. And there are still states for Democrats to potentially redistribute to their advantage, such as Illinois. The legislature there has already passed a congressional map proposal that is heavily biased in favor of Democrats, creating 13 blue seats, three red seats and a single competitive seat; it only has the governor’s signature left for it to become law.

Some states find it more difficult to redraw their lines, especially those where the two parties share the power of redistribution. The bipartite redistribution commissions in the two Virginia and Washington did not meet their statutory deadlines to approve a map, referring their redistribution processes to the supreme courts of their respective states. And the cutout looks intended to be decided by a court in Wisconsin, too, where the Democratic governor has vowed to veto the map adopted by the Republican legislature.

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