These MPs are vulnerable next year, and they are not alone


Maine’s new map does little to change Golden’s position in 2022. He is still in a district that voted for Trump – by 6 points, down from 8 points below current lines – according to calculations by Daily Kos Elections. But Golden has withstood tough campaigns in the past. He owns over a million dollars in the bank, but he faces a well-funded rematch with Republican Bruce Poliquin, who held the seat for two terms before losing to Golden in the country’s first use of the ranked choice vote for Congress in 2018.

Member versus limb races

With West Virginia losing one of its three seats in the redistribution, McKinley and Mooney will face off in a safe Republican district in the northern half of the state. Trump would have beaten Biden 68% to 31% here, according to Jacob Rubashkin, analyst at Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales. McKinley, whose votes were more in line with the Trump-era GOP, led Mooney from 44% to 29%, with 18% of respondents undecided, in a poll released last week by Republican group GOPAC. Mooney has more money in the bank, but he is also under investigation by the House Ethics Committee for alleged misuse of campaign funds.

Newman, who ousted Representative Daniel Lipinski in a 2020 primary, announced she would challenge Casten after Democratic state lawmakers passed a new House card – still to be signed by Democratic Governor JB Pritzker – who lured her to a district with Democrat Jesús “Chuy” García that’s almost 67 percent Latino. The showdown with Casten once again pits Newman against a more centrist member of his own party. Much of the new district is made up of the territory Newman currently represents, but it enters the race at a cash disadvantage of more than 2 to 1. And Casten is no stranger to tough campaigns – he has overthrown his current seat. , who had been drawn in favor of Republicans, during the Democratic wave of 2018.

The new Illinois map puts Bost and Miller in the same district in southern Illinois, but Miller has yet to say whether it will show up there. This has led to discussions that she could safely take on GOP Representative Rodney Davis in the new 15th Red District after her current 13th District was made more Democratic. While Miller and Bost both have strong Conservative voting records, Miller has more opportunities to contrast with the more moderate Davis. Davis has also left open speculation that he might run for governor.

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