ANALYSIS – Even though Maine only has two congressional districts, it will be a key state to watch in the 2022 fight for a majority in the House.
Compared to other states with conflicting or convoluted redistribution processes, Maine’s went smoothly. And with just two districts and minimal population changes over the past decade, there wasn’t much to do.
Maine will fire at least one Democrat in Washington after the 2022 midterm election, given the strong Democratic pull of the 1st District. But the prospects for re-election of Democratic Representative Jared Golden are decidedly more difficult in the 2nd competitive district. And that seat will likely be up for grabs in the presidential elections of 2024 and 2028 because of how Maine distributes the votes of its constituency.
The 1st district, which includes Portland, is the southern seat, more compact. He lost Augusta, the state capital, in a redistribution to the 2nd arrondissement to compensate for population changes, but it remains a Democratic stronghold. According to the new card, Joe Biden would have won the seat by nearly 23 points last fall, according to calculations by Jacob Rubashkin of Inside the elections. Pingree, who was first elected in 2008, was re-elected by 24 points in 2020. Ed Thelander, retired from the Navy SEAL, has applied to run against her this cycle, but the seat is not an objective of taking control of the GOP. Initial assessment: Strong democratic.
Even though the district has improved a bit for Golden with the inclusion of Augusta, he remains one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the country. Golden represents the most Trump-friendly district currently represented by a Democrat. Under the press lines, President Donald Trump is said to have won the seat in 2020 by around 6 points, which is better for Golden than the 7.5 point victory Trump actually got.